Unprecedented Drop in the Philippines' Fertility Rate

James A. Sanchez
December 20, 2022 (Archived)

Long-run: Murky Ambivalence

This is a grim picture, especially if you agree with Tesla's founder and the richest man on earth's dire sentiments. On July 27, 2021, Elon Musk tweeted:

Population collapse is potentially the greatest risk to the future of civilization

However, many experts disagree with Musk. According to a recent UN Report, the world population will keep growing to up to 10.4 billion by the year 2100.

While it is true that many countries are experiencing fertility rates well below replacement rate with Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore leading the ranks as the lowest in the world, this will be offset by other country's explosion in their population with sub-Saharan Africa expected to almost double their population between 2022 and 2050.

Interestingly enough, in the UN’s report, the Philippines is among the eight countries expected to be the main contributors to more than half of the global population increase between 2022 and 2050.

An important thing to note here is that the 2022 NDHS preliminary reports on fertility were only just released on November 13, 2022. While the World Population Prospects 2022 was released on July 11, 2022.

So the UN Report was not able to account for our country's recent massive decline in fertility rate.

Short-run: Opportunity for Improvement

In the local sphere, a more optimistic picture is being painted.

According to the 2020 Census of Population and Housing, 69.40 million individuals out of the total population of 109 million, are within the working age bracket of 15 to 64 years old. This is an increase of 5.74 million from 2015. To the Commission on Population and Development (POPCOM), this increase is a great opportunity to improve our economy.

Lolito R. Tacardon, the POPCOM Officer in Charge-Executive Director (OIC-ED), comments on this stating, “To fully tap this significant quantity of workers, the national government needs to provide steady streams of quality jobs, while capacitating them appropriately so that they can acquire needed skills by industries.”

He emphasizes that timing is important, “This should be a priority; otherwise, we might miss the chance to hasten the country’s socio-economic growth to further improve the quality of life of every Filipino.”

Tacardon agrees with the United Nations Population Fund that “falling fertility levels can create opportunities for countries to realize economic growth resulting from an increase in the number of people of working age, and a decrease in the number of dependents.”

However, commenting on the implications of replacement fertility, Tacardon says there are more benefits than costs in the short-run, “Economic gains from the demographic transition can be funneled to reduce poverty and improve labor force participation. The country will continue to see a robust labor force at over 63% of the population until 2030 or 2035, which is a full dozen years away.”